Cellular IoT Market Development 2026 – Connection Growth and 5G RedCap Adoption
Analysis of cellular IoT connection growth, technology mix, and emerging segments. Based on the Ericsson Mobility Report and a supporting Omdia forecast, this overview covers global connection volumes, cellular IoT's position within the wider IoT market, the share of Broadband and Critical IoT, and the emergence of 5G RedCap as a mid-tier growth segment.
Global cellular IoT connection outlook
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Cellular IoT connections (2025) | 4.5B |
| Cellular IoT connections (2031) | 7.8B |
| CAGR (2025–2031) | 10% |
Cellular IoT in the wider IoT market
Cellular IoT is one part of a broader IoT connectivity landscape that also includes short-range technologies such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Zigbee. Ericsson's wide-area IoT category, which includes cellular IoT alongside other wide-area technologies, is forecast to grow from 4.9 billion connections in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2031.
| IoT category | 2025 | 2031 | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wide-area IoT | 4.9B | 8.3B | 9% |
| Cellular IoT | 4.5B | 7.8B | 10% |
| Short-range IoT | 17.5B | 38.8B | 14% |
| Total IoT | 22.3B | 47.1B | 13% |
Broadband and Critical IoT share of cellular IoT connections, 2025
Within cellular IoT, Broadband and Critical IoT — connections based on 4G and 5G — represents the largest segment. Ericsson reports that Broadband and Critical IoT reached around 2.6 billion connections by the end of 2025, almost 60% of all cellular IoT connections, and expects this segment to remain the largest share through 2031.
Massive IoT and the technology mix
Massive IoT technologies — NB-IoT and Cat-M — continue to support wide-area use cases involving large numbers of low-complexity, low-cost devices with long battery life and low-to-medium throughput, and continue to be rolled out around the world. Network capability additions are enabling Massive IoT to co-exist with 4G and 5G in frequency division duplex (FDD) bands via spectrum sharing.
5G RedCap: an emerging mid-tier segment
5G Reduced Capability (RedCap) is emerging as a mid-tier cellular IoT technology, positioned between low-power Massive IoT and full-performance 5G broadband. Ericsson reports that 5G RedCap has been commercially launched by 14 service providers across multiple global markets, with 42 service providers in 27 countries currently investing in the technology. Omdia's October 2024 forecast projects RedCap connections to reach 963.5 million by 2030, at a CAGR of 66%. Enhanced RedCap (eRedCap), designed for further reduced complexity and cost, is expected to begin lab trials in 2026, with full commercial potential anticipated from 2028 onward.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| RedCap commercial launches | 14 service providers |
| RedCap investment activity | 42 providers / 27 countries |
| RedCap connections forecast (2030) | 963.5M |
| RedCap CAGR | 66% |
Market structure and trends
Data scope
Methodology
Sources
IoT Cybersecurity Certification
Cellular-connected IoT devices may fall under RED cybersecurity requirements when they qualify as internet-connected radio equipment or process relevant data categories. Manufacturers should also consider Cyber Resilience Act readiness, technical documentation, and lifecycle obligations for connected products.